The latest wheat crop outlook from the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI&F) shows wheat crops in most southern Queensland areas have a 60-80 per cent chance of exceeding the long-term median yield this season.

DPI&F crop modeller Andries Potgieter said the favourable prospects for southern Queensland wheat could be attributed to timely rainfall delivering high soil water profiles.

He said wheat prospects were slightly less favourable in parts of Central Queensland where the chances of exceeding the long-term median wheat yield were 30-50 per cent as a result of low soil water levels.

The yield forecasts are based on an agro-climatic computer model that considers El Nino and Southern Oscillation forecasts and up to 102 years of historical information to generate a crop water stress value for each shire.

DPI&F scientist Dave McRae said based on the shift in the April-May Southern Oscillation Index value there was a quite reasonable 60-80 per cent chance of getting at least the long-term June to August median rainfall across a large part of southern Queensland

He said rainfall probabilities in north-west Queensland were lower, with a 30-40 per cent chance of getting at least the long-term median rainfall to the end of August.

"For the rest of Queensland there's no strong signal towards wetter or drier than normal conditions to the end of August," Mr McRae said.