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July 12, 2004
Source: Australian
Oilseeds Federation - Crop Report July 2004
The estimate for area sown has been reduced slightly overall,
with Western Australia showing the largest drop, but only a
small drop is estimated in production, with further upside
potential for yields if there is a good spring.
Source: Industry Estimates, 9/7/04
In the northern New South Wales crops are progressing
quite well, although they will be looking for rain by the end of
July to prevent decline in yield potential. Crops in the central
region are relatively late, but look reasonable at present. In
the south, sowing is now finished and crop emergence has been
very good. Weeds remain a significant potential problem. There
have been a few insects around, but these are not causing any
major problems at this stage. Across the state, but particularly
in the central and south, lack of sub soil moisture is the most
critical issue and substantial rain will be needed in late
winter/spring. Overall area is estimated to be down slightly on
the preliminary estimates, while yields have been left the same.
Outlook in Victoria has improved considerably with
average or above average rainfall in most areas during June.
Crops are all sown and generally at the 2-4 leaf stage.
Emergence has been good and there is no evidence of blackleg to
date. There has been some incidence of red legged earth mite,
but control has been effective. Like NSW there is little sub
soil moisture and good spring rain is required to secure
production. Yields have been increased to reflect the improved
conditions and to bring them in line with the long term average.
There has
been little change in South Australia although like
Victoria yields have been increased to better reflect the long
term average. Crops are generally looking good. There has been
some incidence of red legged earth mite and lucerne flea, with
wet windy conditions causing some problems for growers in
relation to insect and weed control.
Overall the
crops in Western Australia are generally looking good.
The area has been reduced due to area that did not get planted
in the southern zone, but yields have been increased to somewhat
offset this. Conditions in the north are excellent, but become
more patchy as move south.
Market
Comment
New crop outlook is being pressured by the positive conditions
globally. The European canola crop looks excellent and there is
very good potential for the Canadian canola crop. However,
volatility is expected in the market until the US crop is known,
although conditions there are currently good. Local values have
fallen in the last month due to the stronger Australian dollar
and good crop outlook globally. |
