Washington, DC
July 7, 2004The release
of the U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) June acreage report last week has spurred
speculation on whether this year’s crop will surpass 2003’s
record production of 10.114 billion bushels.
The ProExporter Network (PRX),
a Kansas City-based consulting firm, is among those who believe
this fall’s corn crop will indeed set new production marks. If
this summer’s favorable growing conditions persist, PRX
estimates the 2004 crop will be at least 10.516 billion bushels.
The latest PRX numbers also indicate a slight increase in yield
from 142.2 bushels per acre last year to 143.3 in 2004, which
would also be a new record.
“Perfect weather through July
and August could boost the yield even further,” said PRX’s Bill
Hudson. Silking is well ahead of normal and the long-term
weather forecast is unlikely to be as extremely hot and dry as
last year, Hudson said.
Economists are optimistic about
this year’s crop after USDA released its June 30 acreage report,
which estimates 81 million acres were seeded to corn this year.
USDA’s March planting intentions report forecasted 79 million
corn acres, but near-perfect conditions enabled a significant
increase in corn plantings, Hudson said.
“Rarely, if ever, has there
been such a large change from the March intentions to the June
acreage report for the planted area of corn,” Hudson said,
adding that PRX’s corn production estimate “could obviously get
much bigger with continued perfect, cool weather.”
PRX estimates U.S. corn exports
will increase slightly to 1.927 billion bushels, or nearly 19
percent of the total crop. Industrial use, including corn for
ethanol, is forecasted to increase to about 2.65 billion
bushels, or 25 percent of the crop. Livestock feed and residual
use will remain as the top use of U.S. corn, consuming an
estimated 54 percent of the 2004 crop.
Hudson said export demand may
increase, depending on certain international economic variables.
“Most people are assuming 2004-2005 demand is all set to be just
about as perfect as the weather so far, but we have adopted
rather low numbers for U.S. corn exports until more proof comes
from China business,” he said. |