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Near record levels of world rice production in
2004 -
Rice
trade and prices down |
Bangkok, Thailand
December 20, 2004
Global paddy
production in 2004 is estimated at 611 million tonnes,
27 million tonnes higher than in 2003 and close to the
record achieved in 1999, an
FAO
statement said today. However, production will remain
short of consumption and rice supplies available for
international trade might be limited.
Rice production
After four
consecutive years of falling rice production, the
December 2004 issue of FAO’s Rice Market Monitor notes
that most of this year’s rice production increases are
concentrated in
Asia,
especially in China but also in Indonesia. Further
output gains are expected in Afghanistan, North Korea,
Pakistan, Philippines and Viet Nam, with a recovery also
prospected in Japan and South Korea. By contrast,
adverse weather conditions may cause outputs to fall in
Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal,
Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Overall rice
production is also set to rise in
Africa –
reflecting good crops in Egypt, Madagascar and Guinea
Bissau – and
Latin America
with excellent rice crops in Argentina, Brazil and
Uruguay. Prospects are rather bleak in Central
America and the Caribbean due to drought and
hurricanes. In the rest of the world, production
is set to reach a new record in the Unites States;
witness a recovery from the dramatic 2003
drought-induced shortfall in Australia; and end
positively in the European Union.
Despite improved
prospects for global rice production, world rice
inventories would only reach 99 million tonnes at
the end of the 2004 rice crop season, still 4 million
tonnes less than in 2003. This means that, for the fifth
consecutive year, production would remain short of
consumption, with the difference covered with supplies
drawn from stocks.
Rice trade
FAO’s forecast for
rice trade in 2004 has been lowered by about 400 000
tonnes to 26.1 million tonnes, almost 6 percent below
the 2003 trade levels reflecting limited export
availabilities in several of the major exporting
countries (China, India, Myanmar, Pakistan and the
Unites States). Part of these shortfalls is expected to
be filled through larger exports from Thailand, now set
to achieve an all time high of 10 million tonnes, and
from Viet Nam. Sales by Argentina, Egypt and Uruguay are
also likely to increase. While much of the anticipated
contraction in trade in 2004 would be on account of
lower imports to three of the major importing rice
markets (Bangladesh, Brazil and Indonesia), by contrast
most of the other major importing markets are foreseen
to increase.
The first forecast
for rice trade in 2005 points to a decline of
about 900 000 tonnes to 25.2 million tonnes, stemming
principally from current 2004 production prospects and
supply constraints in some of the major exporting
countries, especially Thailand, India and Uruguay. On
the demand side, Brazil, China, Iran, Philippines and
the Unites States are all anticipated to reduce their
imports in 2005.
Rice prices
In general, rice
export prices weakened in recent months, driving the FAO
Rice All Price Index (1998-00=100) from 102 in September
to 100 in November. Among the various types of rice,
prices of Japonica rice have been most prone to fall,
while quotations for aromatic rice have strengthened
since September.
International rice
price prospects in the coming months will depend to a
large extend on the size and quality of the harvests
currently under progress. However, with production
setbacks anticipated in several of the major exporting
countries, supplies available for trade in 2005 might be
limited. As import demand is anticipated to remain
strong, the current world rice price weakness is likely
to be only temporary and quotations could regain
momentum next year.
The
full text of the report FAO Rice Market Monitor –
December 2004 is available from the Internet at
http://www.fao.org/es/ESC/en/20953/21026/index.html
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