AWB estimates improve with market

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
July 21, 2003

AWB Limited has increased Estimated Pool Returns (EPRs) for some of the 2003 pay grades, made adjustments to the soon-to-be-finalised 2001 Pool and left unchanged all 2002 EPRs in this week's pool revision.

Estimated returns for some 2003 milling pay grades are up $5 per tonne, taking APW to $202/t (FOB, GST exclusive) and APH to $227.50/t. There has been no change to 2003 EPRs for ASWN or durum pay grades.

Forecasts for a large world corn crop have seen prices for competing feed grains decline and the spread between milling and feed wheat widen. Reflecting this trend, AWB has reduced the EPR for 2003 Feed pay grade by $10/t.

General Manager AWB National Pools, Sarah Scales, said the wheat market had rallied recently, particularly late last week.

"Forecasts for US wheat production continue to rise, but at the same time, the market is seeing better prospects for exports - which have previously been stagnant - and this could lead to a reduced stocks position in the US," Ms Scales said.

"Elsewhere in the world, we have seen production forecasts downgraded in the EU and Eastern Europe, and there are some concerns over dry conditions for the Canadian crop.

"This has contributed to some improvement in US futures which we have been able to incorporate in the 2003 AWB National Pool," Ms Scales said.

AWB has also made adjustments to the 2001 AWB National Pool, lifting APW, APH and AH by $2.50/t and both ASF1 (Soft) and ASWN by $3/t.

With the 2001 AWB National Pool due to be finalised by end July, this will be the last official update for that Pool. However, EPRs are subject to closing adjustments when the Pool is finalised.

The next Pool update will be August 4th at 4pm.

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