• Could GM rice act as a catalyst to the wider global adoption of GM crop technology?
• What GM traits are being developed in rice and will be introduced in the next few years?
• What benefits will the technology bring to rice and how will GM rice affect production costs and output?
• How might the technology contribute to improved nutrition and enhanced food security in developing countries?
• To what extent may separate markets for GM and non-GM rice develop?
• Who will be the winners and losers?

Rationale for the report

Rice is the most important cereal crop grown globally.  It is of paramount importance as a staple human food source in many areas of the world, and hence plays a key role in delivering food security, especially in the developing world.  In addition, production, trade and consumption of rice in developed economies is a significant and growing feature of the global marketplace. 

The use of GM technology in global agriculture and the food supply chain is, however, currently controversial.  This is largely a result of the expression of strong anti-GM technology sentiment by Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth and other interest groups concerned about potential health and environmental effects.  This has resulted in the use of ingredients, derived from plants containing GMO's, being largely eliminated from foods manufactured for direct human consumption by the food supply chain in some developed economies of the world, notably in Europe.  This anti-GMO sentiment has also more recently focused attention on the use of GM ingredients in livestock production systems via incorporation of GM derived oilseeds and cereals in animal feed.  This raises questions about how national and international markets for GM and non-GM derived crops will develop and is contributing to a slow down in the application of GM technology per se and to its application to crops such as rice, which are of vital importance to many developing economies of the world.

Key drivers for the application and adoption of rice GM technology come from two main sources; the delivery of higher yielding, disease resistant and lower cost rice production and the provision of nutritionally enhanced rice.  This points to the technology potentially playing a major role in improving nutrition and enhancing food security in developing countries. It will also influence rice crop production and price competitiveness vis-a-vis the global cereals sector.

Due to the importance of rice in the developing world and the significant part played by the public sector in providing new rice crop technology, the drive to apply GM technology to rice may well result in faster acceptance of the technology in rice than would be the case for other crops. Rice, therefore has the potential to act as a catalyst to the wider adoption and acceptance of GM crop technology.

This report provides valuable insights into these developments and how they may play out over the next ten years.  The report has been researched and written by PG Economics and follows on from a number of successful and widely taken up GM related Crop Specific Reports.

Objectives

PG Economics is publishing this report to provide GM technology providers, input suppliers, the rice millers and users, food manufacturers, distributors, traders, retailers, consumer groups and lobby groups with sound analysis of the social, economic and market dynamics that are developing and will shape the future.

The report provides insights into the global importance of rice, especially in the developing world, the current and future application of GM technology to rice, the key players and the role of the public sector. It analyses the consequences of GM rice introduction on national and international markets.

This will assist the planning and development of business strategies in global, regional and national agricultural and food markets for those with interest in rice and a wider portfolio of crops.  It will also help those with responsibility for delivering objective public information.

Key questions answered

• How important is rice in the global cereals market?
• What GM traits are being developed in rice and will be commercialised in the next few years?
• Who are the key players and what involvement do they have in rice biotechnology and seed production?
• What benefits will the technology bring to rice?
• How will GM rice affect production costs and output?
• How might the technology contribute to improved nutrition and enhanced food security in developing countries?
• How will the new technology affect the competitiveness of rice to other cereals?
• To what extent may separate markets for GM and non-GM rice develop?
• How important is public sector involvement in the technology going to be for adoption?
• Could GM rice act as a catalyst to the wider global adoption of GM crop technology?
• Who will be the winners and losers?

Contents of the report

Part 1: Global importance of rice

A description and analysis of global rice production, trade and consumption. It will place the importance of rice in the global context relative to other cereals and highlight its key role in developing countries. This part of the report focuses on:

• Rice areas and production: main countries
• Global trade: main country exporters and importers
• Relative importance of domestic consumption to trade (developing and developed countries)
• Main market sub categories of rice (japonica, indica, basmati & other fragrant rices)
• Rice versus other cereals: relative importance (human vs animal consumption, developing and developed countries)

Part 2: Rice biotechnology developments

This part focuses on the likely future role (and influence) of new GM technology.  It covers:

• Genetically modified traits being developed: agronomic and value added traits
• Main uses and focus of each trait
• Patent review and field trial review
• International Programmes
• Rice Genome Projects
• Corporate Profiles of 12 leading organisations

Part 3: The future: economic and strategic issues and market dynamics

It covers the following:

• General market environment: global production, consumption/demand and trade to 2012
• Likely developments in trade patterns
• Developed economies versus developing countries economies
• Nature and size of market differences: will any GM rice market versus non GM derived market segmentation occur
• Extent to which requirements for traceability and identity preservation/segregation may occur: developing versus developed economies
• Effects of the technology on global production
• Competitiveness implications for developing country versus developed country producers and exporters
• Importance of GM Rice commercialisation on global GM crop acceptance in other cereals and oilseeds

Part 4: Conclusions

This part focuses on bringing parts one to three together to analyse the consequence of the introduction of GM rice on international markets. It will cover the following:

• The medium to long term impact of the technology on real prices for rice
• Key likely developments in trade for GM and non-GM rice
• Extent of development of segregation/identity preservation
• The potential to deliver improved nutrition and enhanced food security in developing countries
• Impact on rice crop production vis-à-vis the global cereals sector
• The potential of GM rice to act as a catalyst to the wider global adoption of GM technology
• The winners and losers

PG Economics - the authors

The report will be principally researched and written by two of the directors of PG Economics:

Graham Brookes

An economist who has 17 years experience of providing economic and market analysis, and consulting services to both private and public sector customers.  He has in-depth knowledge of the markets and supply chain developments in many sectors including rice, other cereals, oilseeds and processed product derivatives (eg, animal feed, oils, meals/proteins).  He has considerable experience and understanding of the economic implications of new technology adoption and impact on markets. He has recently written several papers on GM crop market dynamics, GMO identity preservation and segregation and the impact of GM crop adoption.  He has also undertaken several studies relating to rice production economics, policy and trade.

Peter Barfoot

An agricultural economist with 18 years experience in the agricultural biotechnology industry and in consultancy. Peter previously worked at the Agricultural Genetics Company for 12 years in project management, business planning and development.  He has a good understanding of technology and its application in agricultural and food markets. He has written and completed many market research projects on the market development and exploitation of agricultural biotechnology over the last 7 years.  He has also examined the potential of several GM traits for applicability in developing countries.

Order and enquiry form - FAX 44 (0)1300 321502
This report will be published in mid-May 2002 and can be purchased for €4,000.00 (Euros) / $3,680.00.