Mississippi State, Mississippi
December 13, 2007
Soybeans have snatched the No. 3
spot among the state’s top agricultural commodities from cotton,
long-heralded among the row crops as king in Mississippi.
Poultry remained in first place among all agricultural
commodities with a value of $2.3 billion, and forestry was
second at $1.9 billion.
John Anderson, agricultural economist with
Mississippi State University’s
Extension Service, is predicting the 2007 farm-gate value of
soybeans to be $511 million, an increase of 91 percent. He
estimated corn at fourth with a value of $438 million, up 309
percent, and cotton dropped to fifth at $434 million, down 21
percent.
“Most of the increases among the row crops can be explained by
acreage shifts. The exceptions would be declines in soybeans and
cotton. Soybean harvested acreage actually declined from 1.65
million acres in 2006 to
1.43 million in 2007,” Anderson said. “Prices and yields across
the board were good, and in some cases, very good. For soybeans,
the improvements from 2006 were dramatic.”
Despite a second year of drought conditions, soybean fields
averaged 41 bushels per acre, compared to 26 bushels in 2006.
The average prices for the 2007-08 marketing year are projected
to top $8.70 per bushel, which is almost $2.50 per bushel higher
than the previous year.
“Market prices are even higher now than at harvest, and looking
like they will be even better in 2008, possibly reaching record
levels,”
Anderson said.
Dan Poston, soybean agronomist with the Mississippi Agricultural
and Forestry Experiment Station in Stoneville, said he expects a
significant increase in the 2008 soybean acres.
“The success of the 2007 crop, the forecast for strong soybean
prices and the high cost of fertilizer that would be required
for other crops are all factors that make soybeans attractive,”
Poston said. “Next year, we could see more than 2 million acres
of soybeans. The only thing that could reduce planting
intentions would be seed shortages.”
Poston said the 2007 crop benefitted from a timely planting
season and July rains worth millions of dollars to Mississippi
farmers.
“The majority of the Delta got enough rain to keep the crop
alive until the three weeks of rain arrived in July,” he said.
“Without those showers, we might be looking at a 30-bushel state
average, instead of 41, and it would be that good only because
the irrigated crop was good.
About 35 percent of Mississippi’s soybean crop is irrigated.”
Poston said much of the soybean acreage expansion in 2008 will
come from cotton, unless seed shortages force growers to stay
with cotton or corn.
He said growers are likely to plant soybeans behind winter wheat
if seed supplies allow.
By Linda Breazeale
Grain crops
see big 2007 value increases
Corn, wheat and grain sorghum in
Mississippi posted triple-digit increases in 2007, and corn
yielded near a record high as it topped cotton to reach an
estimated value of $438 million.
Corn rose 309 percent in estimated value to $438 million in
2007, and joined soybeans in posting higher estimated values
than cotton, which traditionally holds the No. 3 spot in
Mississippi agriculture behind No.
1 poultry and No. 2 forestry. Wheat increased 514 percent to
reach an estimated value of $93 million, and grain sorghum
gained 942 percent on 2006 figures for an estimated 2007 value
of $28 million.
John Anderson, agricultural economist with the Mississippi State
University Extension Service, said these relatively large shifts
in value of production can be explained by acreage changes.
“The value of corn production in 2007 surpassed all previous
records on a combination of good yields, higher prices and large
acreage,” Anderson said. “Wheat and grain sorghum values were
sharply higher this year, mainly due to significantly larger
plantings, and grain sorghum increased nearly tenfold from a
very low level of planting in 2006.”
Anderson said prices for major row crops were much better in
2007 than in 2006, and corn, soybean and wheat prices at times
challenged historic records.
Extension grain crops agronomist Erick Larson said prices have
been improving for the past 12 months or more.
“Cotton prices have not followed that same trend, and our
growers have been quick to swap acreage because of this market
improvement for grain crops and swap acreage,” Larson said.
Cotton acreage dropped about 45 percent statewide in 2007, and
corn absorbed most of those acres. Corn went from 340,000 acres
in 2006 to 960,000 acres in 2007, exceeding cotton acreage for
the first time since 1958.
A sudden high interest in ethanol production helped further
increase corn’s value. The 2006 corn crop sold for an average of
$2.85 a bushel, and projections are that the 2007 crop will sell
for about $3.35 a bushel. The state’s five-year average is about
$2.30 a bushel.
Larson said the state had record yields in irrigated corn, and
dry-land yields in the Delta were extremely high as well. The
success of the Delta crop pushed the state to an estimated yield
average of 135 bushels an acre, although that figure may improve
enough to top the record 136 bushels an acre set in 2004. The
state typically averages about 125 bushels an acre.
A substantial portion of the state’s grain sorghum was grown in
a double-cropping situation following winter wheat in 2007.
“Prices were good this year, and growers were willing to risk
double-cropping last season,” Larson said, adding that more
acres than normal were planted in full-season grain sorghum.
“Yields were very good, particularly for the full-season grain
sorghum.”
Mississippi growers planted 145,000 acres of grain sorghum in
2007, up from 85,000 acres in 2006. This crop averaged about
75,000 acres a year during the past decade, but in the last few
years, acreage has been as low as 15,000. The high-acreage mark
was set in 1985 at 650,000 acres of this grain.
“Sorghum yields should be above average with about 85 bushels
harvested per acre,” Larson said.
The 2006 sorghum crop sold for an average of $2.60 a bushel, and
the 2007 crop moved up to an estimated $3 a bushel. The state’s
five-year average price is about $2.25 a bushel.
Wheat posted its impressive numbers on the strength of good
yields on 370,000 acres harvested in 2007. Growers planted
85,000 acres of wheat in 2006, but acreage this decade has been
significantly lower than the 200,000 acres planted on average in
the 1990s, Larson said.
“The average yield was 56 bushels an acre, which was very good,”
he said. “The state’s five-year average is about 50 bushels an
acre, and the record was 59 bushels an acre in 2006.”
Wheat’s increased acreage was driven primarily by the increase
in price.
The 2006 wheat crop sold for an average of $3.52 a bushel, while
the 2007 crop jumped to about $4.80 a bushel. The five-year
average price for wheat is about $3.25 a bushel.
By Bonnie Coblentz
Cotton
falls to fifth in overall ag value
High production cost and better marketing opportunities for
grain crops have ended cotton’s perennial run in the top three
of Mississippi’s agricultural commodities.
Cotton’s value in 2007 is almost $415 million, which places the
commodity behind soybeans ($511 million) and corn ($438 million)
in the row-crop category. It is fifth in the overall ranking of
agricultural commodities, according to figures released by John
Anderson, agricultural economist with Mississippi State
University’s Extension Service.
“Historically, cotton ranked first in row-crop value and has
placed first, second or third in the comparison of overall farm
commodity values,” he said. “This change marks a dramatic shift
in the landscape for Mississippi agriculture.”
In its heyday, cotton was king in Mississippi. Agricultural
experts recorded 1930 as a banner year for the crop as farmers
planted more than
4.1 million acres of cotton in the state.
The first sign of a new order occurred with the release of
planting intentions in April. Mississippi farmers typically
plant between 1 million and 1.2 million acres of cotton each
year. When planting was completed, final figures from the U.S.
Department of Agriculture put the crop at 660,000 acres, a 46
percent lower than in recent years.
“Two economic factors played a big role in the acreage drop,”
Anderson said. “Strong prices in corn and soybean markets
convinced farmers to shift acreage that normally would have gone
into cotton. Higher fertilizer and fuel costs discouraged many
farmers from committing more resources to a crop that is already
one of the most expensive to produce.”
A significant amount of cotton acreage was diverted into the
production of corn and wheat. Acreage for corn doubled from
340,000 in 2006 to more than 960,000 in 2007. Wheat acreage
quadrupled from 85,000 in 2006 to more than 370,000 in 2007.
Cotton experienced a complicated production year because of
extremes in temperature, moisture and field conditions, said
Extension cotton specialist Darrin Dodds. A freeze at Easter
slowed some planting, and ill-timed rain with cloudy skies in
July caused boll shed in many fields. August turned miserably
hot and dry, which hurt overall plant health.
Despite the setbacks, the crop as a whole produced the
second-highest yield on record, Dodds said. Farmers averaged 975
pounds of lint per acre, surpassed only by the 1,024 pounds per
acre they averaged in 2004.
Still, cotton was not able to recover its elite-value status,
said Extension agricultural economist Steve Martin of the Delta
Research and Extension Center in Stoneville.
“Market prices for cotton are marginally higher than they were
in the past few years, but they are still not high enough to
cover the cost of production or to be competitive with other
crops,” he said.
Cotton may have lost its luster, but it remains important to
Mississippi agriculture, Martin said. The absence of the crop
would have a dire impact because cotton has a high multiplier
effect on the state’s economy.
“More people are employed and more economic activity is
generated by cotton production than from any other row crop,” he
said. “Rural economies will eventually see reduced economic
activity if cotton acreage is lost without anything else to
replace it.”
In the meantime, forecasters predict that cotton will have a
hard time regaining acreage lost to other crops as production
costs are expected to climb again in 2008, Dodds said. High
futures prices for soybeans will make it hard for cotton farmers
to return to their traditional crop favorite. However, if
soybean seed is in short supply, farmers who can’t obtain seed
might have no choice but to plant cotton once again.
By Patti Drapala |
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